At the start of 2026, the global semiconductor industry ushered in an across-the-board price surge. Fueled by three overlapping factors — explosive AI computing demand, sharp upstream cost inflation and complex geopolitical tensions — international giants including Infineon and leading domestic manufacturers raised prices simultaneously, completely shifting the industry competition paradigm to a "profit defense war". The capital market reacted even more drastically: over RMB 27 billion has poured into the semiconductor sector via ETFs year-to-date, making it the market’s top fund-absorbing track

I. Full Picture of the Price Hike Wave: Global Manufacturers Raise Prices Across the Entire Industrial Chain

This round of price increases is not limited to individual product categories; cost pressures have transmitted across the whole chain covering memory, analog, power semiconductors, wafer foundry and passive components, with global major manufacturers taking synchronized action

International Giants Take the Lead with Stunning Price Rises

Texas Instruments (TI): Full price hike effective April 1, marking its third adjustment in nearly a year and second all-category price increase. Core products such as power management ICs and digital isolators see 15%-85% price growth; certain industrial control models jump up to 85%, automotive electronics rise 18%-25%, with no discounts offered to all customers.

Domestic Manufacturers Fully Follow Suit with 10%-80% Price Hikes

Wafer Foundry: Nexchip raises all foundry prices by 10% starting June 1; SMIC and Hua Hong lift prices by 5%-10% for mature 8-inch processes.

Power/Analog Chips:

NCE Power MOSFETs up 10%-20%; MIXDC MCU and memory chips surge 15%-50%; Guoke Micro hybrid packaged memory jumps 40%-80%.

Passive Components: Murata and Yageo lift MLCC prices 5%-35% amid rising silver and palladium metal costs.

II. Core Drivers of Price Hikes: Three Overlapping Pressures Reverse Supply-Demand Balance

1. AI Computing Demand Siphons Capacity, Triggering Structural Shortages

Booming construction of large AI models and data centers fuels explosive demand for HBM, high-end DRAM and power management chips.

DRAM prices for AI servers surged nearly 90% in Q1, NAND Flash rose 55%-60%, with certain customized variants doubling in price.

TSMC and Samsung concentrate capital expenditure on advanced 2nm/3nm processes, halting capacity expansion for mature 8-inch nodes (the core for analog, power and MCU chips), squeezing capacity and creating structural tightness.

Power chips inside a single AI server carry five times the value of those in traditional servers, further boosting demand for mature manufacturing processes.

2. Full-Scale Cost Inflation Pressures Downstream Players

Raw Materials: Metals for packaging and lead frames including copper, gold, silver and palladium rose over 35% year-on-year; semiconductor materials such as gallium and silicon carbide face supply constraints amid geopolitical conflicts.

Manufacturing Overheads: Overseas energy, logistics and labor costs spike; extended equipment lead times amplify depreciation burdens.

Industry Inventory Clearing: After two years of destocking, channel inventories return to reasonable levels, shifting the supply-demand dynamic from surplus to tight balance.

3. Fundamental Shift in Competition Logic: From Price Wars to Profit Defense

Previously, the industry slashed prices for market share, continuously squeezing gross profit margins. Now leading manufacturers take the lead in raising prices to restore profitability, forcing small and mid-sized players to follow suit. The sector has shifted its strategy from "trading price for volume" to "balancing volume and profit".

III. Industry Impacts & Divergence: Strong Players Grow Stronger, Downstream End Users Face Cost Pressures

1. Profit Restructuring Across the Industrial Chain

Upstream (Equipment & Materials): Biggest beneficiaries with full order books and sharply recovered gross margins.

Midstream (Design & Manufacturing): Leading firms hold pricing power with rising volume and prices; small & medium players lack capacity and struggle to pass on costs, shrinking their survival space.

Downstream (End Products): Automobile, home appliance, PC and handset manufacturers face elevated costs, with prices lifted for certain vehicle models and electronics.

2. Accelerated Domestic Substitution

Faced with external price hikes and geopolitical risks, downstream customers speed up adoption of domestic chips, bringing local manufacturers dual dividends of higher market share and improved profitability.

IV. Market Outlook: Price Hikes to Persist, Industry Prosperity to Rise

Short Term: Price hikes will last at least through H2 2026. Shortages in mature processes, sustained AI demand and rigid costs will keep prices upward-biased with limited downside risk.

Medium Term: The sector enters a new cycle of rising volume and prices, with the trillion-yuan market size milestone likely achieved by end-2026 ahead of schedule.

Risk Factors: Weak recovery in consumer electronics, escalating geopolitical conflicts, overexpansion of manufacturing capacity triggering price corrections.